Smart businesses know that while they can’t change the wx, they can change the way weather affects their business. Thanks to Zac … at Fox4 News, here’s snippet of how our team of meteorologists work with businesses throughout the US and Canada to improve their safety, profitability and reputation as well as our Midwest 24/7/365 consulting.
Clients were a little shook last October when our Meteorologists projected the winters of 1959-60 and 2018-19 as analog (similar pattern) years for this season. Both analogs had an active, snowy February through March. So how’s it going? Here are the details comparing actuals thus far and likely patterns forthcoming to our winter prediction last October. Spoiler alert: don’t be thinking shorts anytime soon.
When looking into the 2019-2020 Winter Season, several analog seasons were found, with two really fitting the bill in our eyes: 1959-1960 and 2018-19. Based on what we saw from the sea surface temperatures, the overall output pattern made sense. How has the analog package been performing?
Here is how October stacked up temperature and precipitation wise:
All has been going well on our top analogs fitting the overall temperature and precipitation pattern to this point. Model data has been back and forth on where we go from here through January, which does not increase confidence in our ideas. Latest model data, for what it is worth, is showing a similar setup to the analog package. It’s just one run, so consistency is not there yet, but from looking at our overall analogs, here is what we could expect for
Temperature (left image) would be mild across the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and into the Ohio River valley with the cooler air being locked up in the west. Locally, for the KS and MO region, this puts us on the battleground line with exact track determining rain or wintry weather. This set-up also favors southwest flow events, which tend to be our best shot at larger events, AKA potential for significant snowfall. Should we verify and not have to change our analog package, where does Winter go for February and March?
Your forecast is started by meteorologists analyzing data that consists of temperatures, dew-points, pressure, and winds collected by weather balloons twice a day over the North American Continent. This weather snapshot of the constantly moving atmosphere is critical to creating model guidance that displays various weather outcomes for your daily life and business operations.
Recently, the National Weather Service has halted the launching of around 24 balloons a week in the state of Alaska. They are saying this is due to staff shortages. Regardless of the reason, the result will affect everyone in the lower 48. Holes where data used to be will result in a larger error in track, strength, and timing for future weather systems especially past day 3. Systems moving in from Canada will not be as accurately measured until they move into northern portions of the contiguous United States (where a better coverage of data is available).
So how does this affect you and your business? Well, missing data will lower the level of confidence after day 3 in model guidance. For example, dry and favorable weather could be expected due to one model run, but in another, because we have the normal amount of data input, it was able to pick up a slight disturbance that could bring damp or slick conditions. This could potentially impact construction projects, outdoor activities, or daily procedures at an airport. If looking at model data alone lead times could be 24 hours or less. Again this would impact any business plans that may have been in place a week out, but now quickly have to change. Here at Weather or Not our meteorologists use their experience along with some guidance to relay the uncertainties in the data, and inform when confidence in a situation increases. Businesses then can take the best and safest action to obtain the best profit possible.
November 6, 2017
More lanes, more ease for the 140,000 motorists on I-435 and a construction project that’s on-time – that’s how we spell s-u-c-c-e-s-s! While some contractors are frustrated rushing to beat the on-set of winter, those on the 2 year I-435 project in Overland Park, KS are wrapping up on schedule for this season!
Despite starting the season with only 12 dry days out of 39 and getting swamped mid-summer with 3 major flooding events totaling 12 – 23 inches of rain, many construction crews were able to squeeze out every dry hour of workable time. This isn’t done by guessing with apps. Smart, seasoned construction professionals use meteorologists like a sub-contractor. If it’s not in their wheelhouse, they contract with the experts.
Owners and managers know that they can’t change the weather but they can change the way weather impacts their business:
-Stealing hours on a day that’s half rainy
-Scheduling concrete only for the dry overnight hours
-Opening a road before rush hour
Strategic operational weather decisions start with project planning several weeks out with Mid-Range Forecasts then gets down to the daily coordination with superintendents every morning before the sun rises and continue up-to-the-minute they shut down. They work in concert with their meteorologists who have their back and do not let their job get caught.
As we have since 1986, Weather or Not’s team of meteorologists will be on the job 24/7 with construction crews on the highway, on the roof or wherever Mother Nature tries to rob them of their profits. When winter sets in, we’ll be performing our annual Weather Operations Audit working with their management to assess this past season to plan even better ways to help crews meet schedules and beat profit projections next season.
What’s your plan? Call us now. We can help!
Do you want your weather forecasts to make a difference every day? Highway contractors decide if they should close roads to pour concrete. MLB decides if they should cancel a game or delay a game in progress. Airports decide if they can keep runways open with their in house crew on, or if they need to call in their snow contractor with the really big equipment. Utilities need to decide if they have to keep crews on depending upon the type of ice storm expected and when it will hit.
All of the business decisions involve accurate, pro-active, timely weather forecasts. This is weather consulting at weather or not. We’ve been doing this for over 30 years.
If this is how you want to share your talents in an exciting work environment, apply to become a part of our team.
- B.S. in Meteorology or military equivalent experience is required
- Sharp analytical skills with a strong understanding of Midwest weather patterns and forecasting
- Superb written and verbal communication skills: must be able to simply explain the impact of complex weather systems on client’s projects while meeting strict deadlines
- Ability to multi-task under pressure while maintaining a calm demeanor
- Strong skills using GEMPAK, GRAnalyst, GREarth, Bufkit, MS Office, Linux required, experience with ArcGIS is a plus
- Experience with programming and database management (i.e. C++, C#, Java, PEARL, PHP, Python, MATLAB, SQL, R, etc.) is a plus
- Innovative thinking with developing digital solutions to weather impacts is preferred
- Pro-active customer service experience a plus
- Demonstrated work ethic and professionalism
To apply, please send cover letter, resume (including references) and salary requirements to:
Mail: Mr. Sullivan Brown, Weather or Not, 6100 Neiman Road, Suite 200, Shawnee, KS 66203
Weather or Not, Inc. is a non-smoking environment. Salary will be commensurate with education, knowledge, skills and abilities. A comprehensive benefits package is available. Please do not call or apply in person. Weather or Not, Inc. is an Equal Opportunity Employer
February 2, 2017
The Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and Intermountain West stand the best chance as wintry conditions through March. With those locations active, the Central U.S. will see limited chances for wintry precipitation, and will also be warmer.
The biggest question mark in the forecast will be February 24th-March 10th, where the pattern could fluctuate every few days, allowing for possibly cool (30s/20s) and wintry systems to traverse the United States. From a Kansas and Missouri Prospective, this will be our best chance as seeing some plowable snow events. As it stands, 1-3 will be possible, with one possibly producing 4”+ of snow.
By mid-March the pattern will calm down, with the West and Northeast seeing winter continue. The Central U.S. will return to mild conditions (60s/40s), and drier more than not.
Keep it Handy!
Free road condition reports are available 24/7 to help you plan the clearest route to the intersection of turkey and football with family and friends. Keep these numbers and websites handy throughout the winter to make traveling easy!
Internships are a great opportunity to discover ways in which you might fit into your chosen field. Many careers have gotten off to a faster start because students put themselves in a professional situation that showed off their skills and talents to a potential employer while that company introduced them to various segments of their industry.
Weather or Not is searching for our next group of interns. We currently have opportunities for bright, energetic students in many areas of meteorology, IT, software development and marketing. Our 30 year history includes consulting to the Kansas City Royals, Sporting KC, airports, utilities, facility managers, public works and snow businesses to name a few. Some of our past interns have even gone on to full-time employment with us!
If you think you’ve got what it takes to intern at Weather or Not, contact us today at firstname.lastname@example.org. We’d love to hear what you’ve got to contribute to our company as we create an exciting start to your professional future.
- High confidence temperatures warm-up late May, but more frequently trend above normal July-September.
- A few brief heatwaves expected July-August.
- Typically active rain pattern will be most active May-June; drier July-September.
- Wet begets wet and dry begets dry, while drought conditions are still possible in late summer,
- Recent rains have delayed onset of drought.
Probably Warmest Summer Since 2012
Main Pattern Drivers
- Strong El Niño
- Warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
- A combination of 1 and 2 creates warmer temperatures over Pacific Northwest/Rockies and
- Great Lakes, which supports a dome of high pressure building over the Midwest.
- Recent rains
Analog* Year Graphs
Weather or Not meteorologists review of the Leavenworth County wind storm on May 11, 2016.