August 4, 2020

How can you maximize profits when heavy rains are predicted?  Ask the right questions at the right time.  The conversations you have with your meteorologist will help move your project’s schedule despite incoming rains.

A Week Ahead…Explain your project goals for the upcoming week with your weather consultant.  They need to know the thresholds your project can take as well as what kind of scheduling you’d like to have happen:  3 full day concrete pours with nothing more than very light rain for less than an hour at a time or total road tear out that must be filled before rain arrives and how long that’ll take or roof tear-offs every day.

2 Days Ahead…Matching your project pain points to weather threats gets you a decision support tool not just a general weather forecast.  Ask your meteorologist what’s changed to the forecast and working day possibilities. Tell them your current plan and plan B. Now you are both prepared for potential adjustments.

Day of…Do I have any dry windows for more than 2 or 4 hours? Will there be rain before and/or after? When does the non-stop, soaking rain arrive at my jobsite? When can we get back out there? The last question will vary for dirt work, roofers, concrete, asphalt and so forth.

Hour by Hour…My radar app is dry.  Can I forget about the rain and go full tilt? The expected rain just went though. Am I good to go for another couple of hours?  Will you notify me when the heavy rain is an hour out? Stay in touch!

Maximizing Profits…Clear conversations are key to staying on a profitable track.  Ask your meteorologist the right questions. Tell them your pain points including rain tolerance, schedule threats, location and stopping trigger points.  Together, you’ll create the most profitable strategy for your project despite soaking rains!

July 30, 2020

When rain showers approaching the Kansas City Metro kept falling apart yesterday, the radar picture looked promising to road crews, roofers and others planning their outdoor workday.

However, Weather or Not Meteorologist Brandon Burton knew   that isentropic lift, a mechanism of the atmosphere that helps turn moisture into rain and storms, could quickly change those dry skies from great working conditions to costly, shut down soakers.

Taking Action to Save Clients’ Projects

Satellite images of developing clouds along with upper tilt views of Topeka radar confirmed he had the physical evidence that rain, including downpours, would wash outdoor work away.

And that’s exactly what happened!

He notified our clients through Weather or Not’s exclusive A+ Weather Alerts and in phone conversations that rain and storms would soon be overhead.

Business Decision Support

These are the days that make or break a contractor’s budget.  Anybody can look at a weather app but it pays to have an experienced meteorologist who’s watching your project and can help you know when to chance it or when you need to re-plan the day.

Even though this rain was in our forecast, a blank radar might have tempted contractors into making a costly bad decision. That’s why we have their back with profit saving, timely updates.

Contact sara@weatherornot.com if you want us to have your back too!

April 27, 2020

Outdoor businesses operating during the pandemic such as heavy highway construction, roofing, facilities management, ground crews and landscaping face many new challenges.  Mother Nature does not care. That’s why it’s so important for businesses to review and possibly revise their timeline to action. Profitability and safety can go hand in hand.

Growing Task List for Job Superintendents

Job superintendents have newly added critical responsibilities including social distancing, sanitizing shared equipment and smaller crews because of staggered scheduling to allow for the social distancing. They’re also in charge of operational weather decisions. That can be a key factor in whether they start up in the morning, schedule for half a day’s work or shut down after certain tasks are completed.

Weather is Not Top of Mind

Profitable outdoor work has always involved a lot of juggling such as managing crews, equipment readiness, available materials at the right time and the ever-popular inspector.  Add in the Covid-19 requirements and it’s easy to see how incoming ­­­­­weather can wreak havoc.

3 Easy Solutions to Implement Today

Have the Conversation

Talk to your meteorologist about how specific weather threats cause you to start up, shut down or go for half a day.  Tell hem how much lead time your crew will need to wrap up safely and how that will affect the schedule for the rest of that week or that project.

Make Certain Project List is Current

At Weather or Not, every clients’ project location, superintendent and phone number are pinned on our radars. When our meteorologists look at radar, they don’t see rain showers popping up, they see that Shane at Cornell Roofing is safe to continue because his crew is too far north to get hurt or they see that Earl at Superior Bowen needs to be notified that he really does only have the expected 2 more hours of dry time but not to push it because the expected rain will hit his job site at 3pm.

As construction and landscaping projects are getting into full swing, make certain that your meteorologists know exactly where you’re working, what weather you cannot take and who to contact.

Never Ask a Meteorologist What the Weather’s Going to Do

Job superintendents don’t have time to listen to a long-winded briefing on how the storm will develop in favorable moisture coming over the Rockies, blah, blah, blah.  Ask a Met what the weather will do and your favorite scientist, who never met a detail they didn’t like, will tell you and tell you and tell you.

The key to great communication with your meteorologist is asking about specific weather threats at a specific location during a specific time frame then explaining how any weather coming in early will affect that job site.  It should go something like: I need at least 4 hours to pour a bridge on 270 in Maryland Heights.  I’d really like 8 but 4 is worth doing if you don’t see any rain heavier than a sprinkle today.  We’ll start at 7.

The meteorologist side of the conversation should sound something like: You’ve easily got the 4 hours dry. You can probably even go until 2.  How long will you plan for?  Noon? Ok, let’s talk again at 11am and see if you can pour the rest of the day or if noon’s the best time to wrap up.

Safely and Efficiently Making Money Despite Weather and Covid-19!

Your mission hasn’t changed: bring the job in on-time and on-budget the safest and most efficient way you can. At Weather or Not, we know that being even more vigilant than even will keep our clients ahead of the storm.  They have so much more to worry about these days.  If you’d like our meteorologists to have your back or audit your weather procedures so you can create a more effective operation with your in-house decision making, give us a call.  Process matters.  We can help.

Stay Safe and Stay in Touch!

Smart businesses know that while they can’t change the wx, they can change the way weather affects their business.  Thanks to Zac … at Fox4 News, here’s snippet of how our team of meteorologists work with businesses throughout the US and Canada to improve their safety, profitability and reputation as well as our Midwest 24/7/365 consulting.

Click here for the full story on FOX4 News

Clients were a little shook last October when our Meteorologists projected the winters of 1959-60 and 2018-19 as analog (similar pattern) years for this season.  Both analogs had an active, snowy February through March.  So how’s it going?  Here are the details comparing actuals thus far and likely patterns forthcoming to our winter prediction last October.  Spoiler alert: don’t be thinking shorts anytime soon.

When looking into the 2019-2020 Winter Season, several analog seasons were found, with two really fitting the bill in our eyes: 1959-1960 and 2018-19. Based on what we saw from the sea surface temperatures, the overall output pattern made sense. How has the analog package been performing?

Here is how October stacked up temperature and precipitation wise:

November:

December:

All has been going well on our top analogs fitting the overall temperature and precipitation pattern to this point. Model data has been back and forth on where we go from here through January, which does not increase confidence in our ideas. Latest model data, for what it is worth, is showing a similar setup to the analog package. It’s just one run, so consistency is not there yet, but from looking at our overall analogs, here is what we could expect for

January:

Temperature (left image) would be mild across the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and into the Ohio River valley with the cooler air being locked up in the west. Locally, for the KS and MO region, this puts us on the battleground line with exact track determining rain or wintry weather. This set-up also favors southwest flow events, which tend to be our best shot at larger events, AKA potential for significant snowfall. Should we verify and not have to change our analog package, where does Winter go for February and March?

With cold releasing into much of the U.S. and the active precipitation pattern continuing, February and March could be quite active, keeping public works and snow removal companies quite busy.

Your forecast is started by meteorologists analyzing data that consists of temperatures, dew-points, pressure, and winds collected by weather balloons twice a day over the North American Continent. This weather snapshot of the constantly moving atmosphere is critical to creating model guidance that displays various weather outcomes for your daily life and business operations.

Recently, the National Weather Service has halted the launching of around 24 balloons a week in the state of Alaska. They are saying this is due to staff shortages. Regardless of the reason, the result will affect everyone in the lower 48. Holes where data used to be will result in a larger error in track, strength, and timing for future weather systems especially past day 3. Systems moving in from Canada will not be as accurately measured until they move into northern portions of the contiguous United States (where a better coverage of data is available).

So how does this affect you and your business? Well, missing data will lower the level of confidence after day 3 in model guidance. For example, dry and favorable weather could be expected due to one model run, but in another, because we have the normal amount of data input, it was able to pick up a slight disturbance that could bring damp or slick conditions. This could potentially impact construction projects, outdoor activities, or daily procedures at an airport. If looking at model data alone lead times could be 24 hours or less. Again this would impact any business plans that may have been in place a week out, but now quickly have to change. Here at Weather or Not our meteorologists use their experience along with some guidance to relay the uncertainties in the data, and inform when confidence in a situation increases. Businesses then can take the best and safest action to obtain the best profit possible.

November 6, 2017

Johnson County Kansas Gateway Project

More lanes, more ease for the 140,000 motorists on I-435 and a construction project that’s on-time – that’s how we spell s-u-c-c-e-s-s! While some contractors are frustrated rushing to beat the on-set of winter, those on the 2 year I-435 project in Overland Park, KS are wrapping up on schedule for this season!

Despite starting the season with only 12 dry days out of 39 and getting swamped mid-summer with 3 major flooding events totaling 12 – 23 inches of rain, many construction crews were able to squeeze out every dry hour of workable time. This isn’t done by guessing with apps. Smart, seasoned construction professionals use meteorologists like a sub-contractor. If it’s not in their wheelhouse, they contract with the experts.

Owners and managers know that they can’t change the weather but they can change the way weather impacts their business:
-Stealing hours on a day that’s half rainy
-Scheduling concrete only for the dry overnight hours
-Opening a road before rush hour

Strategic operational weather decisions start with project planning several weeks out with Mid-Range Forecasts then gets down to the daily coordination with superintendents every morning before the sun rises and continue up-to-the-minute they shut down. They work in concert with their meteorologists who have their back and do not let their job get caught.

As we have since 1986, Weather or Not’s team of meteorologists will be on the job 24/7 with construction crews on the highway, on the roof or wherever Mother Nature tries to rob them of their profits. When winter sets in, we’ll be performing our annual Weather Operations Audit working with their management to assess this past season to plan even better ways to help crews meet schedules and beat profit projections next season.

What’s your plan? Call us now. We can help!

Do you want your weather forecasts to make a difference every day? Highway contractors decide if they should close roads to pour concrete. MLB decides if they should cancel a game or delay a game in progress. Airports decide if they can keep runways open with their in house crew on, or if they need to call in their snow contractor with the really big equipment.  Utilities need to decide if they have to keep crews on depending upon the type of ice storm expected and when it will hit.

All of the business decisions involve accurate, pro-active, timely weather forecasts. This is weather consulting at weather or not. We’ve been doing this for over 30 years.

If this is how you want to share your talents in an exciting work environment, apply to become a part of our team.

Qualifications

• B.S. in Meteorology or military equivalent experience is required

• Sharp analytical skills with a strong understanding of Midwest weather patterns and forecasting

• Superb written and verbal communication skills: must be able to simply explain the impact of complex weather systems on client’s projects while meeting strict deadlines

• Ability to multi-task under pressure while maintaining a calm demeanor

• Strong skills using GEMPAK, GRAnalyst, GREarth, Bufkit, MS Office, Linux required, experience with ArcGIS is a plus

• Experience with programming and database management (i.e. C++, C#, Java, PEARL, PHP, Python, MATLAB, SQL, R, etc.) is a plus

• Innovative thinking with developing digital solutions to weather impacts is preferred

• Pro-active customer service experience a plus

• Demonstrated work ethic and professionalism

To apply, please send cover letter, resume (including references) and salary requirements to:

E-mail: sully@weatherornot.com

Mail:   Mr. Sullivan Brown, Weather or Not, 6100 Neiman Road, Suite 200, Shawnee, KS  66203

Weather or Not, Inc. is a non-smoking environment. Salary will be commensurate with education, knowledge, skills and abilities.  A comprehensive benefits package is available.  Please do not call or apply in person.  Weather or Not, Inc. is an Equal Opportunity Employer

February 2, 2017

The Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and Intermountain West stand the best chance as wintry conditions through March. With those locations active, the Central U.S. will see limited chances for wintry precipitation, and will also be warmer.

The biggest question mark in the forecast will be February 24th-March 10th, where the pattern could fluctuate every few days, allowing for possibly cool (30s/20s) and wintry systems to traverse the United States. From a Kansas and Missouri Prospective, this will be our best chance as seeing some plowable snow events.  As it stands, 1-3 will be possible, with one possibly producing 4”+ of snow.

By mid-March the pattern will calm down, with the West and Northeast seeing winter continue. The Central U.S. will return to mild conditions (60s/40s), and drier more than not.