Tag Archives: drought

Fall Foliage

October 8, 2012

Fall foliage is already in full swing across the Northeastern United States, while signs of change are beginning to show up in the Midwest. The typical peak for Fall colors occurs in October, however some areas to the west won’t see their peak until early November.

Normal Time for Peak Foliage Color

Normal Time for Peak Foliage Color

Temperature and soil moisture play a large role in the vibrancy of fall colors.  Warm sunny days followed by cool nights bring the most colorful leaves. These conditions allow the leaves to slowly become dormant,  bringing out the most colorful foliage.  The amount of soil moisture also affects the onset and amount of color seen, with adequate soil moisture providing optimum color.

What can we expect for color this year?

Recent warm days and cool nights have allowed some decent colors to appear in northwestern Missouri.  However, with the lack of soil moisture caused by this summer’s drought we can expect “leaf peaking” to be less intense this fall.

 

Track Fall Foliage in Missouri –  Missouri Department of Conservation

Read about Fall Colors in Nebraska – Nebraska Games & Parks Commission

Weekly Updates on Foliage in Iowa – Iowa Department of Natural Resources

Ranking the Summer of 2012

September 17, 2012

 

Hot and dry.  Just how hot and how dry was the meteorological summer (June-August) of 2012?  Where does it rank?  Take a look below to find out.

Average Temperature - Summer 2012

Average Temperature – Summer 2012

 

In Omaha, the average temperature of 78.9 degrees made it the 3rd warmest summer on record while 5.97″ of rain made it the 10th driest as well.  This summer isn’t the only season that has been warm though, Omaha is currently having their warmest year to date and had the warmest March-August on record!  Over the summer they set 6 daily maximum temperature records and 4 daily high minimum record (warmest low).

Kansas City had the 16th warmest summer on record with an average temperature of 79.8 degrees, which isn’t quite as warm that most would have anticipated.  Ironically, the average high temperature of 92.6 degrees, ranks 5th warmest on record.  Meanwhile, the average low temperature of 66.9 degrees ranks 75th warmest!  You can see that the cool nights helped this summer to not reach the top 10 in terms of warmest average temperature.  The 4.98 inches of precipitation this summer ranks it as the 6th driest on record.  There were 3 daily maximum temperatures, 2 daily record minimum temperatures tied or broken.

For Columbia the average temperature this summer was 80.3 degrees which is 6th warmest on record, the average high temperature this summer was 93.6 degrees!  This summer recorded 5.74 inches of precipitation in Columbia, which ranked as the 9th driest on record.  Over the months of June, July and August Columbia had quite the heat wave, recording 27 consecutive days of 90 degrees or warmer (tied 2nd longest streak) and had 10 days of 100 degrees or warmer (6th longest streak).  There were 6 daily maximum temperature records set, 1 record high minimum and 1 record daily rainfall.

Precipitation - Summer 2012

Precipitation – Summer 2012

St. Louis (Lambert International Airport) had its 4th warmest summer on record with an average temperature of 82 degrees.  The average high temperature for the summer was 93.1 degrees, while the average low was 70.8 degrees.  The 6.69 inches of precipitation this summer ranks as the 21st driest on record, with 1.48 inches coming on the final day of meteorological summer (August 31).  Some of the notable records this summer included the most days with a high of 105 degrees or higher, 3rd most days with a temperature of a 100 degrees or higher and the most occurrences of a low temperature being 85 degrees or warmer.  St. Louis had 11 record daily maximum temperatures, 7 record high minimum temperatures and 1 daily maximum rainfall.

Springfield had an average temperature of 79.1 degrees, putting this summer in a tie for 9th warmest on record.  Springfield received 5.50 inches of rain this summer, 4.01 inches came in August alone after the driest July on record (0.32 inches).  Over the course of the summer Springfield set 7 daily high temperature records and tied 6 more while also setting a record high temperature for the month of June at 101 degrees.

 

Will Isaac Bring Relief from Drought?

August 30, 2012

 

Released this morning, the latest drought monitor shows slight improvement to Central Kansas and the Northwest corner of Missouri.  These areas went from extreme to severe drought.  Elsewhere, the impact of the rain last weekend left drought conditions unchanged.  ALL could use days of steady rain.

 

Related:  Exceptional Drought? How do they decide?

 

Does Isaac spell R-E-L-I-E-F?  The latest forecast analysis shows that areas of Missouri, adjacent portions of Arkansas, and the Mississippi River Valley could be in line for significant rainfall from the remnants of now Tropical Storm Isaac.  Will it be enough to end the drought?  Look closely at the latest drought monitor maps below and see what category of drought you are currently in.

 

Kansas Drought Monitor - August 28

Kansas Drought Monitor

Missouri Drought Monitor - August 28

Missouri Drought Monitor

Nebraska Drought Monitor - August 28

Nebraska Drought Monitor

 

If you are in the exceptional drought that encompasses such areas as Kansas City, Columbia or Joplin, you will need at least 9 inches of rainfall to alleviate the drought conditions to the point of being only abnormally dry.  Some of those areas actually need in excess of a foot of rain to improve conditions to being only abnormally dry.  Those in the severe drought category, will need at least 6-10 inches of rainfall to alleviate drought conditions.  On Isaac’s current trajectory, a few isolated areas of Missouri and adjacent areas may be able to approach those critical values.

It’s a tough year when hopes for rain hang on a hurricane.  Unfortunately for the Midwest, no other sustained wet pattern is predicted at this time.

Is this the beginning of another Dust Bowl?

Dust Bowl - Kansas 1935

August 24, 2012

We’ve been hearing comparisons of this year’s drought to the Dust Bowl of the 1930’s all summer.  Are they really comparable?  While this year’s drought is extreme, it is still far from the peak of the Dust Bowl in 1934, which ranks #1 in terms of U.S. area covered by drought conditions.  In fact, July of 2012 ranks #20 in terms of area under moderate or worse drought conditions and #28 for area under severe or worse drought conditions.

Take a look at the Top 10 years for area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or worse drought:

1) July 1934 – 79.9%
2) December 1939 – 62.1%
3) July 1954 – 60.4%
4) January 1955 – 58.3%
5) January 1940 – 57.7%
6) December 1956 – 57.6%
7) July 2012 – 57.2%
8) September 1931 – 54.9%
9) August 1936 – 54.4%
10) May 1925 – 54.0%

 

And the top 10 years for area of the contiguous U.S. covered in severe or worse drought:

1) July 1934 – 63.1%
2) September 1954 – 20.1%
3) December 1956 – 43.2%
4) August 1936 – 42.7%
5) January 1935 – 39.9%
6) January 1955 – 39.1%
7) July 2002 – 38.5%
8) July 2012 – 37.6%
9) August 2000 – 36.7%
10) July 1988 – 35.6

 

Could the Dust Bowl ever happen again?  Researchers say unlikely, as the Dust Bowl was largely contributed to lack of erosion-controlling farming practices and drought-sensitive crops such as wheat.  Agriculture was relatively new to the  Great Plains, and farmers were rapidly replacing native prairie grasses with wheat fields.  As the drought continued to expand and persisted the wheat fields failed, leaving exposed and barren top soil that was swept up by winds across Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and other areas.  In fact, some researchers have indicated that humans helped cause the drought and heat in the 1930s due to the increasing barren land, along with the dust that was present throughout the atmosphere.  Much better farm practices and more drought-resistant crops will likely hinder a Dust Bowl scenario from ever happening again.

Exceptional Drought? How do they decide?

August 23, 2012

The personal and economic effects of our desperate need for water keeps drought related stories trending this summer.   You will see the latest Drought Monitor posted by the media, meteorologists and others alike that indicates classifications for areas that are in moderate, severe or exceptional drought.  What does an exceptional drought or a severe drought actually mean?

The labels are determined by using five key indicators, along with several other supplementary indicators, to determine the category of drought.  Examine this graphic, courtesy of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, on each of these indicators and their corresponding values to a drought category.

Explanation of the US Drought Monitor

What do each of these indicators represent?

Palmer Drought Index:  Attempts to measure the duration and intensity of long-term drought-inducing patterns.  Not only taking the latest weather pattern, but patterns from previous months to determine a cumulative value ranging from over 5 (extremely moist) to less than -5 (extremely dry).  The index doesn’t just use precipitation either, it considers evaporation, runoff and other details too!

Soil Moisture Model:  The Climate Prediction Center uses data from 1932-2000 to determine a soil moisture percentile given the current conditions.  Percentiles are a comparison of current conditions to those of the past, meaning if the soil moisture is in the 0-2 percentile it is one of, if not the, lowest soil moisture that has ever been recorded for that location.

USGS Streamflow:  Another percentile, this one from the Geological Survey based upon streamflow of numerous rivers and streams throughout the United States.  The percentile is based upon at least 30 years worth of data for any specific streamflow station and just like the soil moisture percentile, low numbers are an indication of drought conditions.

Standardized Precipitation Index:  An index that is determined by only one source, precipitation.  This indicator is based upon the probability of recording a given amount of precipitation for several time scales (from 1 month to 24 months) with negative values indicating drought conditions.

Objective Indicator Blends:  Likely the most complex indicator used takes into account both short term (1-3 months) and long term (6-60 months) time periods and is based upon many indices including precipitation, topsoil moisture, vegetation health index and other drought indices too.

All of these computerized calculations and numbers don’t always agree on the drought category, and that is why the final determination is  given by numerous climatologists from around the nation.  Have a question about the drought or the drought monitor, feel free to ask us!

Low Water on Mississippi River

In an ongoing saga between the drought and the Mississippi River, the Coast Guard and Army Corp of Engineers have been facing a constant battle in keeping the river open to boat and barge traffic.  The U.S. Coast Guard closed an 11-mile stretch of the river on Monday, August 20 after a ship ran aground while traveling near Greenville, Mississippi which has been closed intermittently since July.  Other portions of the river are staying open thanks to constant dredging.

A recent New York Times article spotlighted an individual dredge that is working just south of St. Louis.  The dredge Potter is said to be sucking up about 60,000 cubic yards of sediment from the bottom of the river and depositing it to the side.  The Potter is one of more than a dozen dredges out working on the river to keep traffic moving which is vital to the economy, with barges hauling grain, petroleum and coal among other products daily.  Inland waterways carry 60% of the nation’s grain exports, 22% of domestic petroleum and 20% of the coal used to generate electricity with a majority moving over the Mississippi and Ohio rivers.

 

How low is the Mississippi?

The river gauge at St. Louis has an observed value of -0.74 feet, 17th lowest on record (-6.10 feet on 01/16/1940 is record low).

Memphis, Tennessee’s river gauge has an observed value of -8.73 feet, 4th lowest on record (-10.70 feet on 02/10/1937 is record low).

Greenville, Mississippi (near where the river has been closed) has a river level of 7.75 feet, 6th lowest on record (6.70 feet is record low on 01/04/1964).

 

Check out the hydrograph of each of those river gauges with the images below (will update automatically to the latest river levels).

 

St. Louis

St. Louis

St. Louis

Memphis

Greenville

Greenville

Please Sir, May We Have Some More…..Lots More?

August 9, 2012

Rumbles of thunder and the pitter-patter of rain last night brought hope to many across the area.   The biggest smiles were found in St. Charles, MO  where they saw over two inches of rain!  However, most of us felt teased as it barely settled the dust.

8-8

How much will it take to really make a difference?

A whole lot more than just normal precipitation is needed, especially in the Central Plains. An occasional inch or two of rain might green up your brown, crunchy lawn, but it will do little to regenerate your local water shed.   An extended period of above normal precipitation is needed to chip away at the deficit and restore the water supply.

Additional Precipitation Needed

 

July 2012: Record Breaking!

Most people across the region came to the conclusion that July was hot and dry, however just how hot and how dry?  We have gathered data for several cities across the area, finding the Top 10 hottest and Top 10 driest Julys on record. Each city had a July average temperature that ranked in the Top 10, with St. Louis having the hottest July on record.  While it was also dry across the region, the precipitation numbers vary a lot more than temperature as isolated thunderstorms provided hit and miss rainfall.  For example, Omaha managed to have their driest July on record with only 0.01″ of precipitation, which also ranks as their sixth driest month ever!  Meanwhile, Columbia managed to see a few of those hit and miss thunderstorms, which led to 1.56″ of precipitation, making it their 26th driest July.  Check out how your city ranks with the graphs below:

 

Omaha, NE

St. Joseph, MO

Kansas City, MO

Columbia, MO

St. Louis, MO

Springfield, MO