Radar Can Be Deceiving

Below is an example of a typical radar image that you will see on your computer, tablet or smart phone. You can see the characteristic light to dark green values indicating the radar is detecting precipitation, or is it?

Kansas City Base Reflectivity

With dual-pol radar products, meteorologists have additional data to differentiate radar echoes that are caused by precipitation versus echoes that can be caused by insects, birds, smoke, etc.

Kansas City Dual-Pol Radar – Correlation Coefficient

We’ve highlighted the area of interest below which shows light and dark greens that appear to be precipitation at first, however they are actually non-meteorological, meaning it isn’t actually rain!

Reflectivity – Highlighted

Correlation Coefficient – Highlighted

Just another reason why you can’t always trust what the radar is telling you!

Roost Rings

The Kansas City National Weather Service Radar picked up an interesting phenomena on radar this morning over northern Missouri, a roost ring! Check out the animated image below which shows the radar from 6:47am until 7:42am and focus in on the area northeast of Carrollton, Missouri.

The expanding circular object is actually flocks of birds leaving their overnight stay in local conservation areas, including Fountain Grove, Yellow Creek and Pershing State Park. A cool phenomena that shows radar doesn’t show you just precipitation!

Will Isaac Bring Relief from Drought?

August 30, 2012

Released this morning, the latest drought monitor shows slight improvement to Central Kansas and the Northwest corner of Missouri. These areas went from extreme to severe drought. Elsewhere, the impact of the rain last weekend left drought conditions unchanged. ALL could use days of steady rain.

Does Isaac spell R-E-L-I-E-F? The latest forecast analysis shows that areas of Missouri, adjacent portions of Arkansas, and the Mississippi River Valley could be in line for significant rainfall from the remnants of now Tropical Storm Isaac. Will it be enough to end the drought? Look closely at the latest drought monitor maps below and see what category of drought you are currently in.

Kansas Drought Monitor	Missouri Drought Monitor
Nebraska Drought Monitor

If you are in the exceptional drought that encompasses such areas as Kansas City, Columbia or Joplin, you will need at least 9 inches of rainfall to alleviate the drought conditions to the point of being only abnormally dry. Some of those areas actually need in excess of a foot of rain to improve conditions to being only abnormally dry. Those in the severe drought category, will need at least 6-10 inches of rainfall to alleviate drought conditions. On Isaac’s current trajectory, a few isolated areas of Missouri and adjacent areas may be able to approach those critical values.

It’s a tough year when hopes for rain hang on a hurricane. Unfortunately for the Midwest, no other sustained wet pattern is predicted at this time.

From Wash Out to the Big Time

Ten years ago, several KC Irish organizations got together and asked, “How can we work to benefit the community as a whole?” Being sociable sorts, they put fun first on their agenda.

Historical Temperatures

Historical Precipitation

Mother Nature doused their event, but not their spirits! 8.03″ of soaking rain turned the venue into a mud pit. A stubborn lot, especially where parties are concerned, organizers persevered to create Kansas City’s largest annual festival. Come join in the fun this Labor Day weekend!

Why Soakers Missed KC Saturday Night

Sunday, August 26, 2012

A slow-moving storm brought soaking rainfall to the Central Plains over the last few days. Topeka recorded a daily record of 2.55” of rain for August 25^th. Milford Kansas, just west of Manhattan, recorded a whopping 6.01” of rain from this storm!

1-2 inches of rainfall looked like a good bet for Kansas City Saturday night. Many lawns were eagerly awaiting a good drink of H₂0, but it didn’t happen for Kansas City.

The radar screenshot from ~7pm Saturday evening (left-below) shows widespread thunderstorms developing west and southwest of Kansas City. An increase in winds just above the surface along with a warm, moist fetch of air from the Gulf of Mexico was expected to sustain the storms as they moved into the area. Taking a closer look, you can see a cluster of thunderstorms ahead of the main rain band straddling the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Thunderstorms had been moving northeast throughout the day, which is why Kansas City had good reason to be hopeful.

Regional Radar - August 25, 2012 at 6:59pm

Regional Radar 6:59pm

Regional Radar - August 25, 2012 at 10:00pm

Regional Radar 10:00pm

The next radar screenshot (right-above) is just three hours later at 10pm. The cluster of thunderstorms that was along the border raced eastward into Missouri. This cut off our supply of moisture and dashed any hope of significant rainfall. Unfortunately, this created a void over Kansas City as shown below.

Storm Total Precipitation

Much Needed Rain for Central Plains

Saturday, August 25

It has been at least 65 days since any of the locations listed below have had an inch or more rain in a single day. For Kirksville, Missouri it has been a whopping 134 days!

While areas of Kansas and northwest Missouri have already seen significant rain, for the rest of Missouri it brings up an interesting question.

When was the last time it rained an inch in a single day?

Kirksville, MO – April 13
Sedalia, MO – April 29
Joplin, MO – May 31
St. Louis, MO – June 11
Kansas City International – June 11
Downtown Kansas City – June 11
St. Joseph, MO – June 11
Columbia, MO – June 16
Jefferson City, MO – June 16
Chillicothe, MO – June 16
Olathe, KS – June 21
Lee’s Summit, MO – June 21

Exceptional Drought? How do they decide?

August 23, 2012

The personal and economic effects of our desperate need for water keeps drought related stories trending this summer. You will see the latest Drought Monitor posted by the media, meteorologists and others alike that indicates classifications for areas that are in moderate, severe or exceptional drought. What does an exceptional drought or a severe drought actually mean?

The labels are determined by using five key indicators, along with several other supplementary indicators, to determine the category of drought. Examine this graphic, courtesy of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, on each of these indicators and their corresponding values to a drought category.

What do each of these indicators represent?

Palmer Drought Index: Attempts to measure the duration and intensity of long-term drought-inducing patterns. Not only taking the latest weather pattern, but patterns from previous months to determine a cumulative value ranging from over 5 (extremely moist) to less than -5 (extremely dry). The index doesn’t just use precipitation either, it considers evaporation, runoff and other details too!

Soil Moisture Model: The Climate Prediction Center uses data from 1932-2000 to determine a soil moisture percentile given the current conditions. Percentiles are a comparison of current conditions to those of the past, meaning if the soil moisture is in the 0-2 percentile it is one of, if not the, lowest soil moisture that has ever been recorded for that location.

USGS Streamflow: Another percentile, this one from the Geological Survey based upon streamflow of numerous rivers and streams throughout the United States. The percentile is based upon at least 30 years worth of data for any specific streamflow station and just like the soil moisture percentile, low numbers are an indication of drought conditions.

Standardized Precipitation Index: An index that is determined by only one source, precipitation. This indicator is based upon the probability of recording a given amount of precipitation for several time scales (from 1 month to 24 months) with negative values indicating drought conditions.

Objective Indicator Blends: Likely the most complex indicator used takes into account both short term (1-3 months) and long term (6-60 months) time periods and is based upon many indices including precipitation, topsoil moisture, vegetation health index and other drought indices too.

All of these computerized calculations and numbers don’t always agree on the drought category, and that is why the final determination is given by numerous climatologists from around the nation. Have a question about the drought or the drought monitor, feel free to ask us!

Please Sir, May We Have Some More…..Lots More?

August 9, 2012

Rumbles of thunder and the pitter-patter of rain last night brought hope to many across the area. The biggest smiles were found in St. Charles, MO where they saw over two inches of rain! However, most of us felt teased as it barely settled the dust.

How much will it take to really make a difference?

A whole lot more than just normal precipitation is needed, especially in the Central Plains. An occasional inch or two of rain might green up your brown, crunchy lawn, but it will do little to regenerate your local water shed. An extended period of above normal precipitation is needed to chip away at the deficit and restore the water supply.

Is the Reprieve Here to Stay?

August 6, 2012

Expected Pattern 8-5

While rejoicing about this morning (lows 56 to 68), many are asking, will the persistent heat return? Thankfully, the answer is not yet. Earlier indications were that the scorching heat would return for the 10th through the 15th, but some welcome changes have occurred. Models now agree that the hot dome of high pressure stays west of the area, at least through the middle of next week. This means multiple cold fronts for the Missouri River Valley. Highs will climb above 90 ahead of the fronts, and drop below 90 behind the fronts, with no persistent 100+ stretches in sight. We look forward to occasional rain chances; not drought busting rains, but certainly welcome nonetheless. The jury is still out on the second half of the month. With the drought continuing, another heat wave could certainly be in store, but for now, watch for more pleasant days ahead!

Drought brings green to some businesses

August 6, 2012

Water bills may be high, but never as costly as foundation repair. It is good to see a business do well, but do you want to be the contributor to their success?

If not, water your foundation!

Cracked Foundation
Kansas City Business Journal – August 6, 2012